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2010-07-11 |
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| Separatists 'cease fire' in 3 areas |
| Unilateral gesture aimed at pursuing dialogue on future, says PMLM
Malay-Muslim separatist organisations confirmed yesterday they unilaterally suspended organised attacks against government security forces for the past month in three districts of Narathiwat province.
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The unilateral cease-fire - billed as a confidence-building measure - was implemented in Rangae, Yingor and Choh I-Rong districts from June 10 until yesterday.
"The aim of this limited cease-fire was two-fold: to indicate the movement's sincerity in wanting to hold a dialogue on the political future of the southern provinces, and at the same time to demonstrate the movement's command and control in the area," according to a statement sent to The Nation by the Patani Malay Liberation Movement.
The PMLM is a joint working group made up of members from the Patani United Liberation Organisation (Pulo) and representatives from the Barisan Revolusi Nasional-Coordinate (BRN-C). Pulo and BRN emerged in the late 1960s but collapsed in the late 1980s following a blanket amnesty that crippled their armed resistance.
PMLM spokesman Kasturi Mahkota, who is also vice president of Pulo, said the "modalities of the suspension of hostilities covered only organised attacks on the security forces and attacks on government targets".
A senior Thai Army officer in Narathiwat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed the unilateral cease-fire but was quick to point out a violation on June 18 in Cho I-Rong when a police car was hit by a roadside bomb attack.
There were three other point-blank shootings against government security forces as well, but it is understood these weren't seen as "organised attacks", as described in the PMLM statement.
A Thai government source said Army chief General Anupong Paochinda, was aware of the militants' unilateral move and had observed it with keen interest.
The unilateral suspension of hostilities was the first of its kind in the wave of violence that erupted a decade ago but was not officially recognised until January 2004 when scores of militants raided an Army base and made off with more than 300 weapons. More than 4,000 people have been killed from insurgency-related violence since January 2004.
The Nation has learned from Thai and BRN-C sources that local military commanders and civilian leaders in the region have also sought, with the help of local community figures, to establish some sort of agreement on the rules of engagement with the local militants' cell.
The absence of an overall policy on the issue of talking to the enemy had forced a number of local commanders to seek such arrangements, they said.
Whether the recently concluded unilateral cease-fire in Narathiwat would pave the way for other bolder initiatives remains to be seen. But Thai security officials on the ground said they were not hopeful, pointing to the spike in violence in other parts of the region.
The decentralised nature of modern militants made it difficult to implement a region-wide initiative or to elevate any confidence-building measures to a national policy, they said.
By Don Pathan
The Nation
Published on July 11, 2010
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ASIA-PACIFIC
Date Posted: 09-Jul-2010
Jane's Intelligence Weekly
Thai insurgents admit month-long ceasefire
EVENT
Malay Muslim separatist insurgents in southern Thailand announced on 10 July the end of a month-long ceasefire in three districts that Thai military forces seem also to have observed.
According to a statement made available exclusively to Jane's , the aim of the initially unilateral suspension of hostilities, the first of its kind in the six-year-long conflict, was twofold.
First, the ceasefire was intended to show the separatist movement's "sincerity in wanting to hold a dialogue on the political future of the southern provinces". However, it also aimed to demonstrate the movement's capacity for effective command-and-control over local forces.
Ceasefire statement
In the statement, the Pattani Malay Liberation Movement (PMLM) announced that a suspension of hostilities covering the districts of Rangae, Yi-ngo and Cho-I-Rong in Narathiwat province had begun on 10 June and was due to expire on 10 July. The insurgents' decision to temporarily suspend military operations was communicated to the Thai government, but not otherwise publicised.
Jane's has learned, however, that the Thai military, after consultations with the government, agreed it too would halt offensive operations over the one-month period.
The three districts have been among the most violent in a zone of conflict that covers the three majority ethnic Malay provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat, Yala and four districts of neighbouring Songkhla. Since hostilities gathered pace in early 2004, an estimated 4,200 people have died and many more have been wounded in daily bombings, assassinations and attacks.
The frequent violence, which has usually targeted government forces but also at times Thai Buddhist civilians, has tied down more than 30,000 regular and paramilitary troops, 20,000 police officers and around 30,000 local defence volunteers.
So far, no specific group or groups have claimed responsibility for the violence, but Thai authorities have identified the 'Co-ordinate' faction of the National Revolutionary Front (Barisan Revolusi Nasional: BRN) as being the driving force behind a revolt that has drawn strength from longstanding Malay-Muslim resentment over an often dysfunctional judicial system and perceived discrimination.
The PMLM appears for the first time to bring together under a single umbrella the BRN-Co-ordinate, the Pattani United Liberation Organisation (PULO) and possibly other, smaller factions. Once a leading faction in the separatist camp, the PULO has had little if any role in armed operations since 2004 but has been increasingly active in international diplomatic and public relations.
The PMLM's spokesman is Kasturi Mahkota, the PULO's deputy president and head of its foreign relations wing. As far back as 2006, Mahkota told Jane's that the PULO was "interested in a political solution and [was] pushing for dialogue and negotiation with the [Thai government]." At the time, the PULO spokesman claimed: "The Thais have no interest."
Reduced violence
The month-long ceasefire appears to have been largely effective. The insurgent statement noted that the suspension of hostilities covered only organised attacks on the security forces and other government targets, but had resulted in "a greatly reduced level of violence in the three districts during this period".
Jane's monitoring confirmed there had been only been one major incident in the three districts during the ceasefire period, an attack using an improvised explosive device (IED) against a security force vehicle in Cho-I-Rong district on 18 June. The bomber missed the target and there were no casualties.
The absence of attacks against the security forces was particularly noticeable in Rangae district, where there is normally at least one IED incident and several insurgent armed assaults each month. There were none during the ceasefire period.
At the same time, security force raids on suspected insurgent safe-houses and jungle camps, which have been typical over recent years and often triggered clashes, also ceased.
Elsewhere, however, the conflict continued apace. During early July several lethal IED attacks in Yala and other parts of Narathiwat killed 10 troops and one civilian. In a 1 July attack in Rueso district, Narathiwat, which borders both Rangae and Yi-ngo, insurgents killed all five occupants of a military pick-up truck with an IED blast and automatic fire, then made off with four rifles.
FORECAST
Whether the largely effective suspension of hostilities will gain further traction remains an open question. Although the statement claimed "the movement probably would be pleased to renew and extend the suspension of hostilities" if the Thai government showed "commitment to a serious dialogue", Bangkok may be unwilling to engage in any publicised dialogue, let alone negotiations, with the insurgents that would imply recognition of the PMLM. The military may also question whether an experiment conducted in three districts has wider relevance for a conflict zone that comprises 37 districts. Nevertheless, the insurgents appear to have placed the onus on the government so the prospects for a wider dialogue that might include other stakeholders beyond the insurgent representatives and the government are now better than they have been in years.
Thai police officers examine the remains of an insurgent car bomb on 4 November 2008 in Narathiwat province. (PA)
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Copyright © IHS Global Limited, 2010
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